You plan seasonal stock as a distributor by reading last year's item-wise and party-wise sales for the same weeks, then buying to that rate against this year's supplier lead time and current cover. Seasonal stock planning distributor method is that comparison, in units and rupees, done in time for the truck, not a week into the festival. Tally already holds last October's outward quantity; it does not turn that register into a forecast, so the owner copies the weeks, divides by days, and writes a purchase. A Guwahati FMCG owner on 8 September opens item-wise sales for 20 September to 8 October last year: diya oil 720 tins in 18 days, 40 a day, ₹95 a tin. Stock Summary today is 60 tins, 1.5 days at that seasonal rate, Kolkata 8 days. The purchase is this week, not on 22 September when the first retailer asks.
Key Highlights
- Last year's item-wise sales for the same dates is the demand forecast; this year's Stock Summary is the cover; lead time decides when the purchase must leave
- Party-wise sales for that same window names who will ask: the three retailers who took 60% of diya oil last Puja are the first calls if the shelf is light
- July Velocity on a Puja SKU will call it slow; planning October on July movement is how the tins arrive in November
In This Article
- How do I plan seasonal stock as a distributor?
- Seasonal stock planning distributor teams copy last year's register
- Party-wise sales: who will lift it
- Cover at the seasonal rate, not the quiet-month rate
- Timing the purchase against lead time
- What this year's register will not tell you yet
- Frequently Asked Questions
How do I plan seasonal stock as a distributor?
You plan seasonal stock as a distributor by treating last year's sales register as the forecast, then checking whether this year's shelf will last those weeks.
Open item-wise sales for the festival window last year. Divide quantity by days. That is the seasonal daily rate. Open Stock Summary for today. Divide today's quantity by that seasonal rate, not by July's rate. Put the answer next to lead time. If cover at the seasonal rate is below lead time, the purchase is now, in September, for an October spike.
The mistake is using this morning's Velocity. Diya oil in July did 2 tins a day. At 60 on hand, cover looks like a month. At last Puja's 40 a day, cover is 1.5 days. The shelf that looked fat in July is already late in September.
This is stockout control for distributors with a calendar. Same four numbers: average daily sales (from last year's window), lead time, days of cover (at that rate), reorder point. The period you choose for the average is the whole method.
Seasonal stock planning distributor teams copy last year's register
Item-wise sales for a custom range is the document. Set 20 September to 8 October last year, or whatever weeks the festival actually ran in your town. Read outward quantity per SKU, not only value. Value mixes rate changes into demand.
Diya oil: 720 tins, 18 days, 40 a day. Gift hamper: 90 boxes, 18 days, 5 a day. 1-litre mustard oil: 432 bottles, 18 days, 24 a day, which is the same as a normal month, so oil is not a seasonal problem. The ranking tells you which SKUs need a seasonal plan and which SKUs can stay on the weekly look.
If last year had a stockout in that window, item-wise sales understates demand. The register shows what you billed, not what was asked. A notebook mark or unbilled sales orders from that Puja, if you kept them, is the correction. Without that, last year's billed 720 tins of oil-for-puja might have been 900 of demand. Planning 720 repeats the stockout. This is the same principle as lost sales due to stockout.
Two years is better than one if you have it. If last Puja was weak and the Puja before was strong, do not average them into a number that never happened. Pick the year that matches what retailers are already booking, or keep both and purchase toward the higher one on the SKUs that hurt when they go dry.
A new SKU with no last year has no register. Use bookings, if sales orders exist, or a small first buy plus a Thursday look once the week starts. Do not invent a 40-a-day rate because a salesman is excited.
Party-wise sales: who will lift it
Party-wise sales for the same last-year window answers who.
Last Puja, three retailers took 60% of the diya oil: Fancy Bazaar Chemist, a Nalbari grocer, a Tezpur kirana. If those three have not been called by 10 September, your forecast is a pile that may not get booked. Seasonal stock planning distributor work includes the call list, not only the PO.
Party-wise also stops you over-buying for a party that closed. If the Nalbari grocer is gone, last year's 60% is now two parties. Cut the purchase, or find who took his place.
Beat-level memory is not a substitute. The salesman remembers who shouted last October. The register remembers who paid for tins. Use the register, then the salesman for colour: "this year they want the bigger tin."
Sales orders already in Tally for September are this year's booking. A chemist who has already punched 40 tins for 25 September is demand you can subtract from what you still need to hold. Sales order on mobile is how that booking exists before the invoice. Pending Orders, a paid add-on available on request, lists what is not yet billed. Seasonal planning without orders is last year plus hope. Seasonal planning with orders is last year plus a queue.
Cover at the seasonal rate, not the quiet-month rate
Days of cover = quantity on hand ÷ daily sales. The daily sales in September for a Puja SKU is last year's festival rate, not July Velocity.
60 tins on hand, July rate 2 a day, cover 30 days. Feels fine on 8 September. 60 tins, Puja rate 40 a day, cover 1.5 days. Kolkata median lead time 8 days. Cover is already below lead time. The purchase is this week.
Reorder point at the seasonal rate: 40 × 8 = 320 tins of pipeline, plus a buffer for the year the truck was 12 days. Buffer 4 days = 160. Reorder point 480. On-hand 60. Gap 420 tins. At ₹95, that is ₹39,900 of purchase, which is the cash conversation, not a surprise on 22 September.
Days of inventory cover is the same division you already use on oil. The only change is the denominator. Seasonal stock planning is choosing the denominator on purpose.
Godown-wise stock matters when Tezpur's Puja is a week later than Guwahati's, or when one branch sells tins and the other does not. Company 60 with Guwahati at 10 is a Guwahati emergency. Transfer is a decision. The PO still uses the location that will actually sell.
Timing the purchase against lead time
Lead time does not care that it is Puja. Kolkata still takes 8 days, 12 in a bad week. If the festival starts 20 September, an 8-day truck has to be ordered by 12 September. A 12-day worst case has to be ordered by 8 September. 8 September in the morning, looking at 60 tins, is already the worst-case date.
Write the dates backwards. Festival start, minus worst-case lead time, is the last order day. Festival start minus median lead time is the planned order day. If today is after the last order day, you buy what the local supplier can do, or you accept dry days and notebook them.
Supplier split: local 2 days for a top-up, Kolkata 8 days for the bulk. Seasonal buying often needs both. The bulk on the planned date, the top-up when bookings exceed last year. Do not wait for the bulk to fail before you ask the local line. By then Fancy Bazaar has already lifted from the next van.
Monday 9:10 in season is daily, not twice a week. Agri-input shops already know this. FMCG around Puja and Bihu has the same shape for a short list of SKUs. Velocity during the festival is the in-week ranking; last year's register is the pre-week forecast. Use both. Do not skip the forecast because Velocity will eventually catch up. Velocity catches up after the first dry day.
What this year's register will not tell you yet
On 8 September, this year's item-wise sales for 20 September to 8 October does not exist. You cannot wait for it. That is why last year is the forecast.
What this year can already show: bookings as sales orders, if you record them. A chemist punching 40 tins on 5 September is a signal last year's 720 might be light. Add it. Do not throw away last year because one chemist booked early.
What this year will show too late: invoices in the festival week. Those are for next year's notebook. If you stock out on 22 September, this year's register will look quieter than demand was. Write the refusals. Next September you will thank yourself.
July's fast and slow ranking will put diya oil at the bottom with the pickle. Leave it there for July purchasing. Pull it out in September with last year's window. Mixing the two periods is the whole failure mode of seasonal stock planning.
The tins do not raise a hand on 8 September. The owner opens last year's item-wise sales, this morning's Stock Summary, the supplier notebook, and decides. Last year's sales register is the forecast because it is the only complete demand tape you already trust.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How do I plan seasonal stock as a distributor?
A: Open last year's item-wise sales for the same festival weeks, get a daily rate, divide today's quantity by that rate, and compare cover to this year's lead time. If cover at the seasonal rate is below lead time, place the purchase now. Party-wise sales for that window names who will lift it.
Q: What is seasonal stock planning distributor teams should actually do?
A: Copy last year's weeks, in units, then buy against this year's truck times. Use last year's item-wise and party-wise sales, today's Stock Summary or godown-wise stock, and median plus worst-case lead time. Do not use July movement for an October SKU.
Q: What if last year I stocked out during the festival?
A: Last year's billed quantity is then too low as a forecast. Add notebook marks or unbilled sales orders from that window if you have them. If you have neither, treat last year's register as a floor, not as the full ask.
Q: Should I average two previous seasons?
A: Only if you are willing to buy a year that never happened. Prefer the year that matches current bookings, or purchase toward the higher year on SKUs that hurt when they go dry. Keep both numbers visible.
Q: Can I wait for this year's festival invoices to decide the purchase?
A: No. Those invoices arrive during the festival, after lead time has already run. Last year is the forecast you have on 8 September. This year's sales orders, if you record them, are the only current demand you can add before the truck.
Q: How is this different from the weekly fast-mover look?
A: The weekly look uses recent Velocity and a 30-day average. Seasonal planning swaps in last year's festival window as the average, weeks before the spike, so cover is computed at the rate that will actually empty the shelf.
Takkada is a Tally-integrated receivables and auto-reconciliation app for Indian distributors, with 0% MDR UPI collection and WhatsApp dispatch. Book a free demo.